Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:29:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2982…aa17 other 685 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$347 (+0%) realized +$393 · open −$46
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate71%479W / 197L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,170per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 233d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$250
sports 35% −$7,062
crypto 25% +$229
world 2% −$19
politics 0% +$67
economics 0% +$110
finance 0% −$264
culture 0% +$4
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +11.5% +0.9% 75% 25% -9.3%
≤30d 33 -10.0% -18.5% 73% 30% -10.4%
≤90d 127 -3.6% -12.8% 70% 28% -13.6%
all 676 -0.6% -10.0% 71% 30% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 30% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 24% -18.9%
15% -26.5% 18% -26.7%
20% -33.7% 14% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$702) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$46 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$393
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses479 / 197
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions8
Markets (closed)676 / 685
History coverage233d
Avg bet$1,170
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 676 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 68¢ 44¢ $68 $44 −$23 (-35%)
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? No 50¢ 98¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+97%)
Pacifica FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 13¢ $13 $7 −$6 (-45%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Yes 77¢ 21¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-73%)
Unit FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 90¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? Yes 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Yes 50¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 173 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $2,498 +$2 +0%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b Jun 19 $147 +$1 +1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12 Jun 12 $5 +$7 +145%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +11%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 11 $4 +$1 +38%
Will Hong Kong have between 190-200mm of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +30%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 31 $2 $0 +28%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $7 +$3 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs May 31 $3 −$3 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 30 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $7,090 −$595 -8%
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen May 28 $6,932 +$68 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Jesper de Jong May 27 $6,993 +$7 +0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $8 −$8 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Thomas Faurel vs Valentin Vacherot May 27 $9 +$1 +6%
Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Shuai Zhang May 27 $6,992 +$9 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexandre Muller vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Adrian Mannarino May 26 $6,993 +$7 +0%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 25 $4 +$1 +22%
Valencia vs. Real Madrid May 22 $5 −$5 -99%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Panna Udvardy vs Anhelina Kalinina May 22 $6,993 +$7 +0%
Bengaluru 3: Sasikumar Mukund vs Alastair Gray May 22 $4 +$1 +12%
Istanbul: David Jorda Sanchis vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo May 22 $3 +$2 +76%
Istanbul: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo May 21 $5 $0 +8%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Coast Guard event? May 21 $5 $0 +6%
Istanbul: David Jorda Sanchis vs Denis Yevseyev May 21 $2,196 +$2 +0%
Bengaluru 3: S D Prajwal Dev vs Ilya Ivashka May 20 $6,993 +$7 +0%
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? May 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur May 19 $5 $0 +8%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $2 +$8 +344%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $6,993 +$7 +0%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 17 $4 −$3 -99%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Henri Squire vs Cristian Garin May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-15? May 16 $901 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16? May 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith May 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 14? May 15 $1,553 +$2 +0%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $13 +$7 +52%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa $0 1h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa $0 1h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa $0 1h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b SELL Yes 93¢ $148 1h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 92¢ $147 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $110 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $339 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $59 1h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa $3 1h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa $0 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $127 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $12 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $999 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $32 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $408 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $411 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18 BUY 52¢ $5 19h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12 BUY 40¢ $5 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $5 7d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 72¢ $4 15d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 71¢ $4 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 20¢ $2 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev SELL Jakub Mensik 82¢ $18 18d
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Jakub Mensik 66¢ $20 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $3 18d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 70¢ $7 20d
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $3 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 100¢ $4,995 20d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes $1 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.64 · official $78.64 (match) · 2593 history records