Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
29 0x297d…8941 sports 62 markets active 6h ago coverage 47d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$198 (+16%) realized +$287 · open −$89
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%27W / 26L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$119
14 days+$77
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$180
other 46% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +83.8% +66.3% 67% 67% +43.6%
≤30d 24 +16.5% +5.4% 50% 46% +3.8%
≤90d 53 +43.2% +29.5% 51% 49% +15.8%
all 53 +43.2% +29.5% 51% 49% +15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.5% 49% +15.8%
10% +17.1% 49% +4.7%
15% +5.8% 49% -5.4%
20% -4.6% 47% -14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +70% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$16 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$287
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses27 / 26
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)53 / 62
History coverage47d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 22¢ $150 $75 −$75 (-50%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 28¢ $26 $14 −$12 (-45%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Yes $4 $1 −$3 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$26 +101%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $13 +$9 +65%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +262%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $7 +$37 +510%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 +$23 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 12 $20 +$24 +119%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $25 +$23 +90%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$30 +146%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $12 $0 +2%
Will Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$8 +79%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Exact Score: Torino FC 1 - 2 Juventus FC? May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: Draw at halftime? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 2 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 3 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $48 −$47 -98%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 May 05 $24 +$24 +97%
US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to Score May 04 $13 +$11 +86%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $33 −$33 -99%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score May 03 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $23 −$23 -98%
Fortuna Sittard vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 2.5 May 03 $30 +$22 +71%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score May 03 $18 +$14 +76%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 03 $19 −$1 -7%
Exact Score: Manchester United FC 2 - 2 Liverpool FC? May 03 $11 −$11 -97%
OGC Nice vs. Racing Club de Lens: Both Teams to Score May 03 $19 +$11 +60%
Will Trabzonspor vs. Göztepe SK end in a draw? May 02 $20 +$50 +246%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $37 +$34 +94%
Will Samsunspor vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? May 02 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 0 Fulham FC? May 02 $25 −$14 -59%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score May 02 $26 +$22 +84%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $37 +$15 +40%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $20 +$62 +303%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? May 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? May 02 $5 +$21 +415%
Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score May 02 $13 +$8 +59%
SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Score May 02 $14 +$9 +66%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $21 −$16 -75%
Trabzonspor vs. Göztepe SK: O/U 2.5 May 02 $10 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. No BUY $10 6h
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 12h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $4 12h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $26 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 36h
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 39h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco BUY $3 3d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 33¢ $30 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Brazil BUY 10¢ $21 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY $12 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $13 3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 45¢ $20 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $25 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $20 5d
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $124 5d
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 57¢ $27 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 7d
Will Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 9d
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 17¢ $10 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 9d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 77¢ $18 23d
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $24 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.30 · official $121.51 · 101 history records