Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

29 0x297c…72c1 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$243 (+12%) realized +$245 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate47%9W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$91per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$17est.

Kalshi-fit36%portable

Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$95

7 days+$96

14 days+$477

30 days+$477

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)-8.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+5.3%	-4.8%	57%	57%	+2.8%
≤30d	13	+25.8%	+13.8%	62%	62%	+27.3%
≤90d	19	+1.6%	-8.1%	47%	47%	+1.8%
all	19	+1.6%	-8.1%	47%	47%	+1.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.1%	47%	+1.8%
10%	-16.9%	42%	-7.9%
15%	-24.9%	42%	-16.8%
20%	-32.2%	32%	-25.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 37% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$91 vs −$60 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.36 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage

Net worth$248

Realized+$245

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses9 / 10

Est. fees paid−$17

Open positions3

Markets (closed)19 / 22

History coverage58d

Avg bet$91

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	90¢	90¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$150	+$18	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$101	+$77	+76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$102	+$107	+105%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$102	−$100	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	−$4	-4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$48	+48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$31	−$30	-98%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$102	+$176	+172%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$31	−$30	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$102	+$111	+109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$51	+$88	+172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$151	+$66	+44%
Thunder vs. Suns	Apr 28	$49	−$47	-97%
Lakers vs. Rockets	Apr 28	$98	−$98	-100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	Apr 26	$130	−$40	-31%
Pistons vs. Magic	Apr 26	$150	−$150	-100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	Apr 25	$50	−$50	-100%
Lakers vs. Rockets	Apr 25	$100	+$127	+127%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$51	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$100	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$101	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$150	2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$102	4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	56¢	$97	4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$101	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$31	7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	18¢	$31	8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$213	8d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	36¢	$102	9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$102	9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	36¢	$51	10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$151	10d
Thunder vs. Suns	BUY Suns	5¢	$49	54d
Lakers vs. Rockets	BUY Lakers	39¢	$98	56d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	BUY Nuggets	56¢	$88	56d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	SELL Timberwolves	44¢	$90	56d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	BUY Timberwolves	20¢	$42	56d
Pistons vs. Magic	BUY Pistons	55¢	$150	56d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	BUY Trail Blazers	65¢	$50	57d
Lakers vs. Rockets	SELL Lakers	65¢	$227	57d
Lakers vs. Rockets	BUY Lakers	28¢	$100	57d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.68 · official $247.68 (match) · 40 history records