Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:21:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x297a…198b sports 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$740 (-23%) realized −$686 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%16W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$129
14 days−$129
30 days−$444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$751
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -57.2% -61.2% 21% 21% -29.8%
≤30d 53 -25.1% -32.2% 28% 28% -23.6%
≤90d 59 -27.8% -34.7% 27% 27% -29.3%
all 59 -27.8% -34.7% 27% 27% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 27% -29.3%
10% -41.0% 27% -36.1%
15% -46.7% 25% -42.2%
20% -51.9% 25% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$48 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$686
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses16 / 43
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage32d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 - Map 1 Winner ECHO 41¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $99 +$136 +138%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $24 −$24 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $35 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $42 −$42 -98%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $47 −$47 -99%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 14 $65 +$35 +54%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $55 +$60 +108%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $76 +$41 +54%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 06 $69 −$68 -99%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $65 −$64 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $98 −$96 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs paiN Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $93 +$31 +33%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner Jun 02 $44 +$67 +154%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Play May 29 $102 +$58 +57%
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America: St May 28 $54 −$53 -98%
Valorant: OXEN vs KRÜ Spark (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular S May 28 $81 +$69 +85%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs NIP - Map 1 Winner May 28 $97 −$96 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs SemperFi Esports - Map 3 Winner May 28 $40 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner May 28 $53 −$52 -98%
Valorant: ROSE vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: BESTIA vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular S May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In May 27 $57 −$57 -99%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North A May 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 26 $43 +$58 +135%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs MANA eSports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl May 26 $18 +$81 +442%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs INOX Division (BO3) - ESL Challenger L May 26 $85 +$106 +125%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $90 +$65 +72%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 4 Winner May 26 $84 −$4 -5%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs K27 (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group C May 25 $143 −$141 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $39 −$38 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp - Map 2 Winner May 24 $210 −$210 -100%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs BASEMENT BOYS - Map 2 Winner May 24 $101 −$99 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 23 $92 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Strael-Bora - Map 2 Winner May 23 $43 +$108 +250%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 22 $1 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winn May 22 $75 −$74 -98%
Map Handicap: QE (-1.5) vs WIP Esports (+1.5) May 22 $95 +$226 +237%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY ECHO 41¢ $55 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 40¢ $41 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 39¢ $59 3d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner SELL Rooster 100¢ $235 3d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 46¢ $70 3d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 33¢ $29 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 42¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 42¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 42¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 42¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 36¢ $24 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 28¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 28¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 28¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 36¢ $40 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 40¢ $2 5d
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 34¢ $41 6d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Legacy 35¢ $25 6d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Legacy 35¢ $19 6d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Legacy 35¢ $6 6d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 48¢ $20 6d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 48¢ $22 6d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 42¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 1¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 1¢ $1 6d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) SELL Monte 100¢ $100 6d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner SELL SPARTA 100¢ $115 6d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) BUY Monte 65¢ $65 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 126 history records