Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2979…ed8e sports 205 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 193L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$4
other 19% −$3
politics 18% −$3
economics 10% −$2
crypto 7% −$1
culture 6% −$1
world 5% −$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 204 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 193
Open positions1
Markets (closed)204 / 205
History coverage170d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $267 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $157 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $86 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $93 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $72 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 02 $94 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $132 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $211 −$1 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $81 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 02 $243 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $246 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 26 $295 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 26 $42 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 26 $41 $0 -0%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 23 $44 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $185 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $144 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $85 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $238 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $134 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 21 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $117 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $59 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $197 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $93 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $92 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $44 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $37 18d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $38 18d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $33 25d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 26d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $36 33d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $36 33d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $32 107d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $32 107d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $45 107d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $45 107d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 98¢ $38 107d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $38 107d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $41 107d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $41 107d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $32 107d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $32 107d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $40 107d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $40 107d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $45 107d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $45 107d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $41 107d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $41 107d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $44 107d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $44 107d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $42 107d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $42 107d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $41 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.07 · official $44.07 (match) · 765 history records