Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

29 0x2977…4425 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$6 (+3%) realized +$3 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate55%11W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$7per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$37

7 days+$27

14 days+$27

30 days+$27

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)+5.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+22.9%	+11.2%	58%	58%	+8.7%
≤30d	19	+22.9%	+11.2%	58%	58%	+8.7%
≤90d	19	+22.9%	+11.2%	58%	58%	+8.7%
all	20	+16.8%	+5.6%	55%	55%	+5.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.6%	55%	+5.4%
10%	-4.5%	55%	-4.7%
15%	-13.7%	55%	-13.9%
20%	-22.2%	55%	-22.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -22% → late +56% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.35 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage

Net worth$29

Realized+$3

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses11 / 9

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)20 / 25

History coverage232d

Avg bet$7

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Argentina	42¢	42¢	$13	$13	−$0 (-1%)
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists	Yes	37¢	44¢	$9	$10	+$2 (+18%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	Under	41¢	62¢	$4	$6	+$2 (+50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$10	+$9	+90%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	+$26	+250%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$10	+$10	+101%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$6	−$6	-99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$8	+$9	+124%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$3	+$3	+101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$3	+$3	+114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$5	+$4	+79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$4	−$4	-98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$6	+$5	+93%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$5	+$6	+109%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$7	−$7	-99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$20	−$20	-99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$9	+$10	+105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$5	+$3	+70%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Metizport (BO3)	Oct 28	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	42¢	$13	1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	41¢	$4	1h
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	37¢	$9	1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	BUY	2¢	$2	16h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	BUY	19¢	$10	25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$21	25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$10	27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5	BUY Over	56¢	$6	38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	50¢	$7	38h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$5	39h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$8	2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$3	2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$7	2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$9	2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	32¢	$5	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	SELL Germany	100¢	$11	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	50¢	$4	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$3	2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$3	2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	55¢	$5	2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	51¢	$6	2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$5	3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	47¢	$5	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	58¢	$7	3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	61¢	$10	3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	63¢	$10	4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	58¢	$5	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.17 · official $31.68 · 40 history records