Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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29 0x2977…6efc crypto 1319 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 160d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,508 (-3%) realized −$1,505 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%624W / 697L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$473
7 days−$737
14 days−$1,059
30 days−$1,213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$2,337
sports 41% +$194
other 2% +$159
world 0% −$61
politics 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -25.2% -32.3% 38% 38% -34.5%
≤30d 146 -25.2% -32.3% 37% 37% -36.0%
≤90d 1265 -11.6% -20.0% 46% 45% -33.0%
all 1321 -8.7% -17.4% 47% 46% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 46% -13.4%
10% -25.3% 45% -21.7%
15% -32.5% 43% -29.2%
20% -39.1% 40% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$35 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$1,505
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses624 / 697
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1321 / 1319
History coverage160d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $54 $52 −$1 (-3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $18 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 440 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
James Madison Dukes vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Everton FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bulls vs. Pacers Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Heat Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Venom (BO3) Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$19 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$19 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$16 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$13 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$8 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$8 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$44 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$17 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$13 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$9 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$23 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$19 +145%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $43 −$43 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$8 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $28 −$10 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$6 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $47 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $23 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $55 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 2¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $34 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $22 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $19 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.66 · official $85.66 · 3500 history records