Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2976…a923 other 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$423per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$11
politics 16% −$3
world 6% −$1
culture 6% −$1
economics 6% −$1
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% +$4
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.4% -9.2% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 +0.4% -9.2% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 35 +0.0% -9.5% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 35 +0.0% -9.5% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$897) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×6.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage76d
Avg bet$423
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,193 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day Jun 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 18 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $60 +$4 +6%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,119 −$1 -0%
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Jun 16 $1,146 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $1,104 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,122 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $57 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio May 03 $882 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 03 $28 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $822 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $841 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? May 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $864 −$2 -0%
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? May 01 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 01 $897 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $105 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $46 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 03 $69 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,191 3m
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 12m
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $24 19m
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,175 28m
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $14 35m
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day SELL No 100¢ $27 42m
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $21 48m
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 56m
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $849 1h
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $227 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $1,078 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,117 28h
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 28h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,101 28h
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 28h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $794 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $60 29h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 30h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $279 30h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,075 30h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? SELL No 100¢ $1,145 46h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 46h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 46h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 100¢ $1,120 46h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 46h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 46h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $111 46h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 47h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 100¢ $26 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records