Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
29 0x2976…a6d2 politics 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$213 (+0%) realized +$212 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate18%26W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$1,414per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$688now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$23
14 days−$163
30 days−$361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$100
other 39% +$583
sports 12% −$285
world 4% −$8
culture 2% −$4
economics 2% −$2
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 60 -6.7% -15.6% 7% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 112 -8.0% -16.8% 9% 6% -9.9%
all 142 +2.8% -7.0% 18% 15% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 15% -9.4%
10% -15.9% 14% -18.1%
15% -24.0% 12% -26.0%
20% -31.4% 11% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,168) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$13 · ×4.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$688
Realized+$212
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses26 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)142 / 144
History coverage122d
Avg bet$1,414
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $457 $457 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $230 $231 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $3,166 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $421 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,898 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $4,058 −$5 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,262 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $911 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,168 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $2,893 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,402 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $4,240 −$6 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,727 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $6,373 −$7 -0%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $364 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,898 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 03 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $507 −$1 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $4,248 −$5 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $329 +$1 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $379 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $309 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $5,850 −$6 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $4,153 −$5 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $2,800 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $422 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $967 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $1,217 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $3,923 −$4 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $437 −$1 -0%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $68 +$37 +55%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 24 $43 +$22 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $457 2m
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $481 47m
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $481 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $420 6h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $421 7h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $475 22h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $476 24h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $488 26h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $489 30h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $467 46h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $467 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $392 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $393 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $300 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $300 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $352 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $352 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $320 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $321 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $343 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $343 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $395 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $395 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $331 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $331 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $378 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $378 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $402 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $403 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $258 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $687.90 · official $687.90 (match) · 518 history records