Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2972…21f6 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-3%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$1
other 36% −$2
politics 14% −$4
sports 3% $0
tech 2% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.1% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 6 -13.8% -22.0% 17% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 6 -13.8% -22.0% 17% 0% -10.7%
all 30 -14.5% -22.7% 37% 0% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 0% -12.1%
10% -30.1% 0% -20.5%
15% -36.8% 0% -28.2%
20% -43.0% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage456d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $69 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $1 −$1 -85%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 22 $1 −$1 -54%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $6 $0 +5%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 25–May 2? Apr 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 29 $6 $0 -7%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 28 $9 −$1 -10%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Apr 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $29 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $7 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $8 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $28 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $37 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $7 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? SELL No 100¢ $5 358d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $1 380d
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 394d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? BUY No 96¢ $5 396d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 76¢ $5 396d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 77¢ $5 396d
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 396d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $6 396d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 93¢ $6 397d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 76¢ $1 397d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 76¢ $4 397d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records