Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2971…2688 other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$145 (-1%) realized −$168 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate21%15W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$86
14 days−$86
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 24% −$14
other 20% −$94
sports 20% −$1
economics 17% +$21
crypto 15% −$20
world 3% −$55
tech 1% −$24
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -27.4% -34.3% 0% 0% -31.0%
≤30d 28 -20.1% -27.8% 4% 0% -22.3%
≤90d 28 -20.1% -27.8% 4% 0% -22.3%
all 71 -14.1% -22.3% 21% 4% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 4% -11.1%
10% -29.7% 3% -19.6%
15% -36.5% 1% -27.4%
20% -42.7% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses15 / 56
Open positions3
Markets (closed)71 / 74
History coverage534d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 10¢ 32¢ $10 $32 +$22 (+225%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 63¢ 78¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+25%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 17 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 17 $36 −$1 -4%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 17 $42 −$6 -13%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 17 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $32 −$26 -81%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $42 −$29 -70%
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 17 $43 −$1 -2%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 17 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Sarah Elfreth be the Democratic nominee for MD-03? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -47%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 16 $12 −$7 -55%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $30 −$13 -42%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? May 19 $22 $0 -2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? May 19 $38 −$1 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 May 19 $46 −$19 -40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? May 19 $26 +$1 +2%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o May 19 $46 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 19 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Ed Diehl win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election May 19 $43 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 19 $24 $0 -2%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 19 $3 −$2 -78%
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary May 19 $42 $0 -1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? May 19 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in May? May 19 $6 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 19 $14 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 19 $50 $0 +0%
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 16 $78 −$48 -61%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $15 +$5 +33%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Feb 20 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 05 $26 +$1 +2%
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Feb 05 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Jan 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? Jan 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 13 $8 +$4 +56%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Jan 13 $14 +$1 +10%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 13 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Alibaba have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 13 $33 −$16 -50%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 14 $38 −$6 -16%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Dec 09 $39 +$3 +7%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 09 $52 +$3 +6%
Will any AI reach $50k in Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competitio Dec 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Sora be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21? Nov 22 $24 −$12 -50%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 14 $1,596 −$2 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 14 $1,588 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 13 $1,610 −$3 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Sep 21 $15 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Sep 21 $22 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 58m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 14¢ $7 58m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 84¢ $22 58m
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? SELL Yes 70¢ $35 58m
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL Yes 74¢ $37 59m
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL No 86¢ $43 1h
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 87¢ $44 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 85¢ $42 1h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 72¢ $36 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 83¢ $22 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 15¢ $8 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 12¢ $6 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 25¢ $12 2h
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? SELL No 85¢ $42 2h
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? BUY No 86¢ $43 2h
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? SELL Yes 84¢ $42 2h
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? BUY Yes 85¢ $42 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 64¢ $32 2h
Will Sarah Elfreth be the Democratic nominee for MD-03? SELL No 7¢ $1 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 83¢ $42 2h
Will Sarah Elfreth be the Democratic nominee for MD-03? BUY No 13¢ $3 3h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 21h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $17 21h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? SELL Yes 45¢ $22 28d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? SELL Yes 75¢ $37 28d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? BUY Yes 45¢ $22 28d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? BUY Yes 76¢ $38 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 28d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 SELL Yes 7¢ $3 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.45 · official $61.45 (match) · 302 history records