Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2970…e1c9 sports 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Covers last 631d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$213,369 (-49%) realized −$212,046 · open −$1,323
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%33W / 54L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,274per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$876est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$29,379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,642
7 days−$12,984
14 days−$12,345
30 days−$13,396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$102,202
politics 31% −$77,750
sports 10% −$341
other 9% −$5,193
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -17.9% -25.8% 42% 42% -31.4%
≤30d 48 -15.5% -23.6% 44% 44% -30.3%
≤90d 62 -14.0% -22.2% 44% 44% -34.7%
all 87 -19.8% -27.5% 38% 36% -51.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.5% 36% -51.4%
10% ← realistic here -34.4% 33% -56.1%
15% -40.7% 30% -60.3%
20% -46.6% 22% -64.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$2,142) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -23% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
26.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,338 vs −$4,228 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$29,379
Realized−$212,046
Unrealized−$1,323
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses33 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$876
Open positions15
Markets (closed)87 / 102
History coverage632d ⚠
Avg bet$4,274
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $11,957 $12,141 +$185 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $5,972 $4,615 −$1,357 (-23%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 56¢ $3,414 $3,639 +$225 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3,174 $3,288 +$114 (+4%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Over 83¢ 100¢ $1,206 $1,452 +$246 (+20%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1,404 $1,305 −$99 (-7%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes $831 $940 +$109 (+13%)
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $616 $477 −$139 (-23%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 37¢ $470 $370 −$100 (-21%)
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $321 $289 −$31 (-10%)
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $393 $280 −$114 (-29%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 27¢ $443 $267 −$176 (-40%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $334 $210 −$123 (-37%)
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $158 $97 −$60 (-38%)
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $835 −$835 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1,178 +$322 +27%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,970 −$1,950 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $841 −$834 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $2,237 −$2,200 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $2,627 +$835 +32%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,472 +$1,498 +102%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $557 −$25 -4%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1,890 −$1,860 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1,009 +$398 +40%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Jun 24 $22 −$8 -35%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $2,028 +$1,639 +81%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1,010 +$490 +48%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $414 −$413 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $2,023 −$2,000 -99%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $507 +$436 +86%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $506 +$341 +67%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $405 +$241 +60%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $635 +$277 +44%
Will Starmer say "Chancellor" during the next Prime Minister's Questio Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Starmer say "Apologize" or "Apology" during the next Prime Minist Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 24 $107 −$107 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Trump say "Space Force" during Coast Guard event? Jun 24 $1,639 −$1,639 -100%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "Go ahead" 5+ times during th Jun 24 $1,852 −$1,852 -100%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "President" 40+ times during Jun 24 $1,710 −$1,710 -100%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "President" 30+ times during Jun 24 $1,643 −$1,643 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $2,058 +$840 +41%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $1,672 −$510 -30%
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Jun 24 $284 $0 -0%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1,942 −$1,915 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $759 +$571 +75%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1,317 +$955 +72%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $913 +$879 +96%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $237 +$47 +20%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Panama vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $103 +$202 +196%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 23 $340 −$68 -20%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$95 +93%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $12,941 −$3,308 -26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $135 +$62 +46%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 21 $462 −$324 -70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $561 +$639 +114%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $2,033 −$1,981 -98%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $2,000 +$931 +46%
Will Trump say "Semper" during Coast Guard event? May 21 $101 +$86 +85%
Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during Coast Guard event? May 21 $694 +$231 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $1,212 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $902 1h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $20 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $193 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $37 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 2h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 2h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,312 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 2h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $100 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $50 2h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1,064 2h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $450 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $477 2h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,379.36 · official $29,642.80 (match) · 3500 history records