Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2965…44a8 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 391d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$1
other 18% −$1
politics 10% +$2
economics 6% −$1
crypto 4% $0
finance 3% +$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 15 -0.6% -10.1% 47% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 -0.6% -10.1% 47% 0% -9.5%
all 37 -1.2% -10.6% 46% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.3%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

391d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage391d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $88 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $70 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $67 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $18 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $43 +$2 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $103 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $36 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $3 −$1 -16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 24 $31 −$1 -2%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 -22%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $31 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 08 $24 $0 -0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 07 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Jun 06 $1 $0 -33%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 06 $30 +$1 +3%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 03 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $111,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $9 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 53% and 55% of the vote in the South Ko Jun 02 $8 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 01 $28 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $26 $0 +0%
Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential ele May 29 $25 +$1 +6%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? May 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will Kafka Hibino win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025 May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 23 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $38 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $39 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $3 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $42 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $46 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $46 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $21 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $21 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $19 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $20 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $47 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $47 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 63¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $15 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.62 · official $37.40 (match) · 118 history records