Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:25:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x2965…8bb9 politics 192 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,988 (+1%) realized +$2,988 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%36W / 154L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$1,411per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$15
14 days−$42
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$37
politics 41% −$134
sports 10% +$3,959
world 2% +$8
tech 2% −$5
culture 2% −$6
crypto 1% −$861
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 56 +5.2% -4.8% 9% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 119 +1.2% -8.4% 8% 6% -8.4%
all 190 +8.1% -2.2% 19% 13% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 13% -8.5%
10% -11.5% 13% -17.3%
15% -20.1% 13% -25.3%
20% -27.9% 12% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$2,044) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$11 · ×11.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized+$2,988
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses36 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)190 / 192
History coverage162d
Avg bet$1,411
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $166 $166 +$0 (+0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $159 $159 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $4,990 −$5 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $3,613 −$5 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $236 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 22 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $221 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,182 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,690 −$6 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,044 −$3 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $934 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,574 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $4,102 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,689 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,911 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,925 −$4 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $3,776 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,096 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $3,328 −$4 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,891 −$4 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,007 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,006 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $808 −$1 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $71 +$44 +62%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $698 −$1 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $55 +$53 +97%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2,744 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $85 +$37 +44%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $70 +$68 +97%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,831 −$2 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $994 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,775 −$3 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $345 +$1 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $7,469 −$8 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,862 −$5 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $5,432 −$6 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $1,660 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $2,195 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $2,122 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $2,555 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $2,043 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $297 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $297 3h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $221 45h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $222 47h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $381 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $382 2d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $235 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $166 3d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $236 3d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $231 3d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $231 3d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $220 4d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $221 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $289 5d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $289 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $559 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $559 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $891 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $893 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $901 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $902 8d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $932 8d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $934 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $695 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $697 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $915 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $917 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $835 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $836 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $804 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.93 · official $324.93 (match) · 693 history records