Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x295c…e52a other 235 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 220L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$25
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$34
sports 24% −$16
politics 9% −$8
culture 7% −$7
crypto 7% −$5
economics 5% −$6
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 235 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 235
History coverage131d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 235 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $913 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $117 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $257 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $455 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $148 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $443 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $294 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $267 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $335 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $196 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $353 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $236 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $393 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $374 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $416 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $268 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $441 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $208 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $239 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $253 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $435 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $204 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $161 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $400 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $198 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $354 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $117 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $372 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $173 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 17m
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 6h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 8h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 9h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 11h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 12h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 16h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 19h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 21h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 21h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 22h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 27h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 29h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 34h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 35h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 39h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $53 40h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 3d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1353 history records