Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:39:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5

score

29 0x2958…007d other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2,100 (+58%) realized +$2,144 · open −$44

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +152% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +128% what you keep after slip

Net edge+128%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate22%4W / 14L

Drawdown25%max

Avg bet$171per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Fees−$25est.

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$1,262now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$42

7 days+$2,376

14 days+$2,376

30 days+$2,245

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)+128.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+183.8%	+156.7%	21%	21%	+148.1%
≤30d	17	+166.8%	+141.3%	24%	24%	+102.0%
≤90d	18	+152.5%	+128.5%	22%	22%	+76.7%
all	18	+152.5%	+128.5%	22%	22%	+76.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+128.5%	22%	+76.7%
10%	+106.6%	22%	+59.8%
15%	+86.7%	22%	+44.4%
20%	+68.4%	22%	+30.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 67% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +118% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +153% · $-wt +118% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +197% → late +108% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$674 vs −$47 · ×14.42 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.12 per $1 lost it wins $4.12

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage

Net worth$1,262

Realized+$2,144

Unrealized−$44

Win rate (resolved)22%

Wins / losses4 / 14

Est. fees paid−$25

Open positions3

Markets (closed)18 / 21

History coverage36d

Avg bet$171

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown25%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	No	37¢	36¢	$1,197	$1,154	−$43 (-4%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$59	$55	−$4 (-7%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$50	$53	+$3 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 19	$52	−$22	-42%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 19	$0	$0	-20%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia?	Jun 17	$31	−$4	-13%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia?	Jun 17	$31	−$4	-14%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia?	Jun 17	$31	−$5	-15%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia?	Jun 17	$31	−$7	-23%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$101	+$1,011	+1004%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$720	+$787	+109%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 16	$39	−$5	-13%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$41	−$40	-96%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$16	+$709	+4548%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$14	−$13	-96%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$16	−$15	-96%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$16	−$15	-96%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC?	May 30	$41	+$191	+462%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC?	May 30	$31	−$30	-96%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions	May 23	$296	−$292	-99%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	May 18	$227	−$202	-89%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	11¢	$61	1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	SELL Yes	3¢	$30	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	36¢	$203	1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	4¢	$52	1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire?	SELL Yes	5¢	$0	1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	4¢	$52	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	37¢	$31	23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	37¢	$72	23h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	6¢	$0	23h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	6¢	$0	23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL No	36¢	$472	42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	37¢	$206	44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	37¢	$1,235	44h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia?	SELL Yes	14¢	$27	44h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia?	SELL Yes	12¢	$27	44h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia?	SELL Yes	11¢	$26	44h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	13¢	$31	45h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia?	BUY Yes	12¢	$31	45h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia?	BUY Yes	15¢	$31	45h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia?	SELL Yes	8¢	$24	47h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia?	BUY Yes	10¢	$31	47h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,099	2d
Spread: France (-1.5)	SELL France	86¢	$1,507	2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	7¢	$50	2d
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	40¢	$10	2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	8¢	$35	3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	14¢	$34	3d
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	39¢	$150	3d
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	39¢	$100	3d
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	39¢	$70	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,262.05 · official $1,262.17 (match) · 56 history records