Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2957…b26a sports 785 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$876 (+2%) realized +$747 · open +$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%331W / 451L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Fees−$615est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$510
7 days−$190
14 days−$510
30 days−$1,002
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -14.9% -23.0% 41% 41% -12.7%
≤30d 179 -27.2% -34.1% 33% 32% -16.1%
≤90d 782 -9.5% -18.1% 42% 41% -9.1%
all 782 -9.5% -18.1% 42% 41% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 41% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 40% -17.8%
15% -33.1% 36% -25.7%
20% -39.7% 31% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$40 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$497
Realized+$747
Unrealized+$129
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses331 / 451
Est. fees paid−$615
Open positions3
Markets (closed)782 / 785
History coverage75d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 782 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Team Evictix 44¢ 100¢ $88 $198 +$110 (+125%)
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner Alliance Guardians 56¢ 100¢ $85 $152 +$67 (+79%)
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season KRÜ Spark 56¢ 100¢ $83 $148 +$65 (+79%)
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Division One 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 168 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $233 −$227 -97%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $57 +$153 +267%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $233 −$231 -99%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $159 −$157 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $62 +$43 +70%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $116 −$114 -98%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $100 +$23 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $148 −$140 -94%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $336 +$174 +52%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $204 +$309 +152%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $30 −$28 -94%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $319 −$313 -98%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $279 −$273 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $181 +$506 +279%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $138 −$136 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $144 +$115 +80%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $166 −$164 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $106 −$104 -98%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $53 −$52 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $69 −$67 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $90 −$88 -98%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Minkens finest - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $137 −$135 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $103 +$108 +105%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $84 −$83 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $24 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $23 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $122 +$183 +150%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $98 +$56 +57%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $770 +$383 +50%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $108 +$103 +96%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $126 −$124 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $138 +$66 +48%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $75 −$67 -89%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $124 +$80 +64%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $120 +$107 +90%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $72 −$71 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $23 −$22 -92%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $39 −$38 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $180 +$231 +128%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $155 −$153 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $214 +$109 +51%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $91 +$132 +146%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $81 +$123 +152%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $109 −$107 -98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $18 +$37 +201%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $17 −$17 -98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $79 −$18 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 43¢ $1 54m
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 55¢ $2 56m
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 45¢ $89 1h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY KRÜ Spark 65¢ $5 1h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY KRÜ Spark 62¢ $23 1h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY KRÜ Spark 62¢ $2 1h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY KRÜ Spark 53¢ $54 1h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner BUY Alliance Guardians 57¢ $10 2h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner BUY Alliance Guardians 72¢ $25 2h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner BUY Alliance Guardians 50¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 49¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 59¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 64¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 65¢ $198 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 65¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 38¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 44¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 48¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 44¢ $20 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 57¢ $196 4h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 48¢ $2 7h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 64¢ $5 7h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 50¢ $152 7h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 26¢ $1 8h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 27¢ $56 8h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 58¢ $62 11h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 28¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 30¢ $3 11h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 35¢ $108 11h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Lorenzo Giustino 19¢ $1 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $497.20 · official $497.20 (match) · 2588 history records