Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

29 0x2957…33f4 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$15 (+4%) realized +$18 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip

Net edge+15%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$59per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+19.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+32.5%	+19.9%	100%	100%	+19.9%
≤30d	1	+32.5%	+19.9%	100%	100%	+19.9%
≤90d	1	+32.5%	+19.9%	100%	100%	+19.9%
all	1	+32.5%	+19.9%	100%	100%	+19.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+19.9%	100%	+19.9%
10%	+8.4%	100%	+8.4%
15%	-2.1%	0%	-2.1%
20%	-11.7%	0%	-11.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +32% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +32% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$295

Realized+$18

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)1 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$59

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	84¢	84¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$68	$68	−$0 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	38¢	37¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	59¢	57¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	35¢	36¢	$30	$30	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$42	+$14	+32%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	69¢	$71	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	35¢	$32	1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	38¢	$53	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	84¢	$104	3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	72¢	$42	6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	59¢	$53	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.13 · official $295.13 (match) · 7 history records