Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2956…d31b other 325 markets active 2h ago coverage 560d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$67,145 (+38%) realized +$59,262 · open +$7,883
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate65%160W / 88L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$548per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$385est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$22,674now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 560d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$5,762
politics 33% +$9,868
sports 8% −$2,538
crypto 3% +$272
world 2% +$226
economics 0% −$375
tech 0% −$79
finance 0% −$29
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -12.3% -20.6% 68% 20% -24.2%
≤30d 37 +5.2% -4.8% 62% 22% -16.4%
≤90d 112 -4.7% -13.8% 57% 23% -16.6%
all 248 +0.2% -9.3% 65% 24% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 24% -14.5%
10% -18.0% 15% -22.6%
15% -25.9% 10% -30.1%
20% -33.2% 9% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$125 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$22,674
Realized+$59,262
Unrealized+$7,883
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses160 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$385
Open positions108
Markets (closed)248 / 325
History coverage560d
Avg bet$548
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 108 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 2¢ 62¢ $165 $6,285 +$6,119 (+3703%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 2¢ 20¢ $296 $3,695 +$3,400 (+1151%)
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $437 $1,412 +$975 (+223%)
Will Jordan Henderson be in England's Starting 11? No 95¢ 98¢ $710 $732 +$21 (+3%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $506 $693 +$187 (+37%)
Will David Raya score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $475 $480 +$5 (+1%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $369 $439 +$70 (+19%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 68¢ $444 $408 −$36 (-8%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 93¢ $376 $374 −$3 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 68¢ $374 $373 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $215 $340 +$126 (+59%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 84¢ $326 $340 +$14 (+4%)
Will Ollie Watkins be in England's Starting 11? No 94¢ 96¢ $293 $298 +$5 (+2%)
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $288 $287 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ghana reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $282 $284 +$2 (+1%)
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 93¢ $280 $279 −$1 (-0%)
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 91¢ $274 $274 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $264 $262 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 78¢ $207 $232 +$26 (+12%)
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $350 $203 −$147 (-42%)
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $199 $202 +$4 (+2%)
Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $81 $200 +$119 (+146%)
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $305 $199 −$106 (-35%)
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $192 $194 +$2 (+1%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 84¢ $202 $193 −$9 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Curacao reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $0 $0 +21%
Will Netherlands's Starting 11 include a player not listed above? Jun 14 $594 +$28 +5%
Will Jorrel Hato be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Robin Roefs be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $400 +$34 +9%
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Oliver Baumann be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $76 +$5 +7%
Will Antonio Rüdiger be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $71 +$3 +4%
Will Sweden reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,061 −$942 -89%
Will Australia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 +25%
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $607 −$276 -45%
Will Lutsharel Geertruida be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Jun 14 $225 +$6 +3%
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $516 −$97 -19%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 13 $2,512 +$141 +6%
Will South Korea reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $106 +$5 +5%
Will John Skipworth finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $135 $0 +0%
Will David Raya win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $361 −$361 -100%
Will Ederson win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $343 −$342 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $693 +$202 +29%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $516 +$6 +1%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 08 $388 +$48 +12%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 08 $277 −$2 -1%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $336 −$4 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $29 +$33 +114%
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 04 $598 +$2 +0%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $2,023 −$389 -19%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $230 +$1 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $608 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 28 $44 +$132 +300%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 18 $864 −$240 -28%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $33 +$44 +133%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $6,705 −$12 -0%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 16 $4,603 −$241 -5%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 16 $2,241 +$111 +5%
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? May 14 $676 +$103 +15%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 12 $228 −$122 -54%
Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-04-21? May 11 $2,750 −$250 -9%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 11 $11 −$11 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Charlton Athletic FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw? May 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? May 11 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $469 −$469 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? May 11 $544 −$544 -100%
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-04-21? May 11 $540 −$529 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $487 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $718 +$9 +1%
Will Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? May 10 $3 +$7 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $100 1h
Will Jordan Henderson be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $29 2h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $68 3h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $21 4h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will James Trafford be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $46 5h
Will Curacao reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Ghana reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 6h
Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will Neymar win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $42 6h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $45 6h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $24 6h
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 35¢ $50 8h
Will Curacao reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will Curacao reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 35¢ $1 12h
Will Sweden reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 12h
Will Rayan Cherki win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $12 12h
Will Rayan Cherki win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $29 12h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 15h
Will Antonio Rüdiger be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 15h
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $9 16h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $132 16h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $54 16h
Will Antonio Rüdiger be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,674.40 · official $22,691.32 (match) · 3327 history records