Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x2955…794a sports 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$246 (+17%) realized +$297 · open −$101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$488
other 18% −$254
crypto 6% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+44.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +60.1% +44.8% 57% 57% +12.7%
≤30d 30 +60.1% +44.8% 57% 57% +12.7%
≤90d 30 +60.1% +44.8% 57% 57% +12.7%
all 30 +60.1% +44.8% 57% 57% +12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.8% 57% +12.7%
10% +31.0% 57% +1.9%
15% +18.3% 57% -8.0%
20% +6.7% 53% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late +59% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$42 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$297
Unrealized−$101
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage4d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 38¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 31¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 37¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 59¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $101 +$65 +64%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $38 +$31 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $71 +$90 +127%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $68 +$58 +86%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$65 +128%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $44 +$79 +180%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $55 +$90 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $55 −$54 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $61 +$37 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $41 +$56 +137%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 +$74 +360%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $25 −$1 -5%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Maria Florencia Urrutia Jun 12 $5 +$5 +84%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $144 −$144 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $32 −$31 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $22 +$50 +226%
ITF Wuning: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Sara Saito Jun 11 $14 +$63 +442%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$56 +550%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 11 $15 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $101 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 87¢ $167 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $69 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $162 4h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $38 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $71 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $126 8h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 38¢ $61 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 53¢ $68 10h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $116 10h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $25 12h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 43¢ $51 12h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 35¢ $44 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 21h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $145 21h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $55 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $55 26h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 99¢ $97 31h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $61 35h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $97 35h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $41 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $94 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 21¢ $20 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.17 · official $99.17 (match) · 57 history records