Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:24:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2955…0738 politics 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$309 (+3%) realized −$20 · open +$329
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day29.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$6,947now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$255
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 78% +$99
other 12% +$90
sports 6% +$160
world 3% −$10
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -20.1% -27.7% 60% 47% -9.0%
≤30d 15 -20.1% -27.7% 60% 47% -9.0%
≤90d 15 -20.1% -27.7% 60% 47% -9.0%
all 15 -20.1% -27.7% 60% 47% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.7% 47% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -34.6% 27% -17.7%
15% -40.9% 27% -25.7%
20% -46.7% 20% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$59 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$6,947
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$329
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions109
Markets (closed)15 / 124
History coverage10d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 109 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $484 $480 −$4 (-1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $379 $395 +$16 (+4%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $344 $354 +$10 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $356 $353 −$3 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 84¢ $272 $338 +$66 (+24%)
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 97¢ 98¢ $266 $269 +$3 (+1%)
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $258 $254 −$4 (-1%)
Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 40¢ 48¢ $205 $246 +$41 (+20%)
Will Liam Elkind be the democratic nominee for NY-12? No 99¢ 100¢ $243 $245 +$2 (+1%)
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $228 $227 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? No 75¢ 87¢ $167 $195 +$28 (+17%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 97¢ $190 $194 +$4 (+2%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 45¢ 46¢ $190 $192 +$2 (+1%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 28¢ 85¢ $64 $192 +$128 (+201%)
Will Bill Gates Jr. win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Democratic primary election? No 96¢ 98¢ $107 $110 +$3 (+2%)
Will Kathy Hochul win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $102 $105 +$2 (+2%)
Will Christopher Bouchat win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $101 $103 +$2 (+2%)
Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $99 $102 +$3 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-15 House seat? Yes 69¢ 64¢ $109 $102 −$7 (-7%)
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $99 $101 +$2 (+2%)
Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 28¢ 51¢ $52 $96 +$44 (+84%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $90 $91 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? No 93¢ 97¢ $83 $87 +$3 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-12 House seat? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $79 $80 +$2 (+2%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $88 $74 −$14 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $252 −$252 -100%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $359 +$41 +11%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $134 +$16 +12%
Will John Cowan be the Republican nominee for GA-11? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $276 +$124 +45%
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 16 $379 +$20 +5%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $126 +$74 +58%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $127 +$73 +58%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $17 +$13 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 87¢ $14 3m
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY No 37¢ $11 1h
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary BUY No 58¢ $6 1h
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-02 House seat? BUY Yes 80¢ $79 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 87¢ $160 2h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 46¢ $10 6h
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 6h
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6h
Will Kathy Hochul win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Prima BUY Yes 99¢ $20 6h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 45¢ $92 9h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 45¢ $92 9h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 87¢ $12 9h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 9h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 12h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 12h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 12h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 12h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 87¢ $14 12h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 87¢ $29 13h
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 13h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $190 13h
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 13h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 13h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 79¢ $14 13h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 79¢ $159 13h
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 14h
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 14h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 76¢ $18 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,946.61 · official $6,947.74 (match) · 325 history records