Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:42:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2953…9646 politics 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%3W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$1
other 19% $0
crypto 14% $0
sports 10% $0
world 9% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 23% 0% -9.6%
all 21 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses3 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage117d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $84 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $84 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $84 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $84 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $85 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $85 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $84 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $85 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? May 09 $85 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 13 $86 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $86 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $86 $0 +0%
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? Mar 29 $86 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 24 $86 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $86 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $86 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $86 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 07 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $86 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $84 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $84 14h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 40h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $84 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $84 18d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $84 19d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $84 26d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $84 26d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $84 29d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 30d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $85 39d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $85 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $85 42d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $84 43d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $84 44d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $85 44d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $85 49d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $85 49d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $86 69d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $86 70d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $86 75d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $86 75d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $86 76d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $41 76d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $45 76d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $86 85d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $86 85d
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? SELL No 100¢ $86 90d
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 90d
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? BUY No 100¢ $51 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records