Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2953…7f46 crypto 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$357 (-6%) realized −$438 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate42%31W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days−$34
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$435
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -5.8% -14.8% 42% 42% -16.6%
≤30d 49 -3.6% -12.8% 45% 41% -14.4%
≤90d 74 -5.0% -14.1% 42% 31% -16.2%
all 74 -5.0% -14.1% 42% 31% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 31% -16.2%
10% -22.3% 11% -24.2%
15% -29.8% 0% -31.5%
20% -36.7% 0% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$438
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses31 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage63d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $13 −$3 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$3 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $22 +$3 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$2 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $22 −$8 -37%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $14 −$4 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $13 −$1 -7%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $13 −$3 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $12 −$1 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $13 −$1 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $7 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $16 −$5 -30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $15 −$2 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $15 −$1 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $15 −$6 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $35 −$7 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 +$3 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 +$2 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $15 +$4 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $10 −$4 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $11 −$2 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $9 −$2 -22%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $9 +$2 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $12 +$2 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 31? May 31 $12 +$4 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $13 −$5 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 30? May 30 $15 −$4 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $12 −$3 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $9 +$2 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $7 +$1 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $16 −$3 -21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 27? May 28 $18 −$5 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $12 −$5 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $17 −$5 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 26 $12 +$1 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 25? May 26 $18 +$5 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $15 +$3 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? May 25 $14 +$3 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 20 $110 −$2 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 17? Apr 17 $417 −$58 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL No 58¢ $10 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 69¢ $13 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 61¢ $7 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 95¢ $9 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $12 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $11 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? SELL No 87¢ $3 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? SELL No 89¢ $9 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 75¢ $7 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? BUY No 77¢ $11 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 62¢ $7 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 84¢ $9 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 83¢ $12 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL No 54¢ $6 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $9 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 52¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $8 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 57¢ $8 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $13 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? SELL No 61¢ $11 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 79¢ $14 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? SELL No 94¢ $7 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? SELL No 94¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 252 history records