Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:59:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x2952…f50d sports 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$471 (+4%) realized +$1,226 · open −$755
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$277per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$481now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,268
7 days+$2,867
14 days+$2,611
30 days+$2,611
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$1,803
other 24% +$1,973
world 14% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +54.5% +39.8% 53% 53% +86.9%
≤30d 16 +44.8% +31.0% 50% 50% +70.7%
≤90d 33 +10.6% +0.1% 42% 42% -1.1%
all 45 +7.7% -2.6% 38% 38% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 38% -2.2%
10% -11.9% 38% -11.6%
15% -20.4% 36% -20.1%
20% -28.2% 36% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$425 vs −$224 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$481
Realized+$1,226
Unrealized−$755
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage150d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 51¢ 50¢ $246 $243 −$2 (-1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $990 $237 −$753 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 28 $304 +$217 +71%
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $250 +$153 +61%
Jonathan David: 1+ assists Jun 28 $127 −$124 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $305 +$349 +114%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Jun 28 $404 +$400 +99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 27 $75 −$73 -98%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $399 +$357 +90%
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists Jun 26 $124 +$404 +325%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $346 +$1,432 +413%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $26 +$88 +344%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $261 −$256 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Mar May 04 $255 −$250 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Dalibor May 04 $709 −$700 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Draw at halftime? May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $306 +$433 +142%
Madrid Open: Ann Li vs Leylah Fernandez Apr 27 $781 −$767 -98%
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar Apr 26 $800 +$219 +27%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry Apr 26 $500 −$492 -98%
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot Apr 24 $175 +$470 +269%
Madrid Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Ethan Quinn Apr 23 $500 −$492 -98%
Madrid Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marin Cilic Apr 22 $600 −$591 -98%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Patrick Kypson vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Apr 21 $805 +$780 +97%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Yibing Wu vs Titouan Droguet Apr 21 $400 +$447 +112%
Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils Apr 18 $304 −$299 -98%
BMW Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Denis Shapovalov Apr 14 $324 −$320 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $184 +$158 +86%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Arthur Rinderknech Apr 08 $150 −$147 -98%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? Mar 08 $115 −$115 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Mar 01 $174 −$174 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $565 −$510 -90%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Feb 28 $54 −$54 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $50 +$177 +354%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$298 +299%
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $344 +$840 +244%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 23 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? Feb 20 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg end in a draw? Jan 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $249 1m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Texas Rangers 100¢ $520 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $279 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $180 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 57¢ $124 3h
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 45¢ $124 4h
Jonathan David: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $127 4h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $351 7h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 77¢ $304 7h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 40¢ $305 10h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 99¢ $315 10h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 73¢ $489 11h
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $250 12h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 40¢ $150 15h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 40¢ $254 15h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 15h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 14¢ $75 22h
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $207 32h
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 88¢ $549 32h
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $399 34h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $102 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $124 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,778 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $114 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $90 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 22¢ $26 3d
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $102 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 9¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $480.60 · official $480.60 (match) · 84 history records