Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

29 0x2952…1fe7 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$166 (-20%) realized −$166 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%4W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$102per market

Trades / day3.9pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-11.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-2.4%	-11.7%	50%	50%	-30.5%
≤30d	8	-2.4%	-11.7%	50%	50%	-30.5%
≤90d	8	-2.4%	-11.7%	50%	50%	-30.5%
all	8	-2.4%	-11.7%	50%	50%	-30.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-11.7%	50%	-30.5%
10%	-20.1%	38%	-37.2%
15%	-27.8%	25%	-43.2%
20%	-34.9%	12%	-48.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 98% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -2% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$55 vs −$102 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.54 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$166

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses4 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)8 / 8

History coverage4d

Avg bet$102

Trades / day3.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 8 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$13	−$13	-100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$14	−$1	-4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Jun 16	$11	+$3	+30%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$9	+$2	+19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$10	−$1	-7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 16	$394	−$394	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Jun 13	$244	+$89	+37%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$118	+$126	+107%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	88¢	$13	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	SELL Yes	68¢	$13	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	69¢	$14	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$14	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	BUY Down	74¢	$11	1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	SELL No	84¢	$11	1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY No	69¢	$9	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	51¢	$9	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	82¢	$394	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$244	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$244	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$16	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$102	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records