Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:21:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
29 0x2952…4e7e sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,775 (-29%) realized −$1,775 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$674per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,548
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -4.1% -13.2% 44% 44% -32.9%
≤30d 9 -4.1% -13.2% 44% 44% -32.9%
≤90d 9 -4.1% -13.2% 44% 44% -32.9%
all 9 -4.1% -13.2% 44% 44% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 44% -32.9%
10% -21.5% 44% -39.3%
15% -29.1% 44% -45.1%
20% -36.1% 44% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$598 vs −$788 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,775
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$674
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $245 +$255 +104%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $811 +$670 +83%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $857 −$847 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $612 +$1,055 +172%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $816 −$800 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,524 −$1,500 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $401 −$392 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $406 −$400 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $396 +$410 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 48¢ $245 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $811 21h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $857 22h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $612 32h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $816 44h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,524 44h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 25¢ $401 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $406 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $396 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records