Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:02:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x294c…9f86 crypto 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%163W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 30 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 129 -1.6% -10.9% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 166 -1.1% -10.5% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses163 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)166 / 167
History coverage132d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $74 $74 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $74 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $74 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $73 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $73 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $72 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $73 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $72 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $72 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $72 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $71 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $71 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $71 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $70 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $68 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $66 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $66 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $64 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 30 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? May 29 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $51 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 25? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22? May 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? May 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? May 10 $39 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 10 $4 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 10 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $74 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $74 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $74 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $73 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $73 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $72 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $73 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $72 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $72 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $72 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $71 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $71 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $71 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $70 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 98¢ $19 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $67 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 98¢ $66 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $66 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 96¢ $64 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $63 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $63 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $52 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $52 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $52 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $52 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.35 · official $74.35 (match) · 345 history records