Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:47:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

29 0x294b…5a9f crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$198 (-14%) realized −$206 · open +$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip

Net edge-45%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate41%9W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$60per market

Trades / day40.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-34.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-28.0%	-34.9%	41%	36%	-25.5%
≤30d	22	-28.0%	-34.9%	41%	36%	-25.5%
≤90d	22	-28.0%	-34.9%	41%	36%	-25.5%
all	22	-28.0%	-34.9%	41%	36%	-25.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover40.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-34.9%	36%	-25.5%
10% ← realistic here	-41.1%	36%	-32.6%
15%	-46.8%	32%	-39.1%
20%	-52.0%	18%	-45.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -28% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -10% → late -46% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$41 vs −$44 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.64 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$209

Realized−$206

Unrealized+$9

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses9 / 13

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage1d

Avg bet$60

Trades / day40.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$200	$209	+$9 (+4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Jun 23	$19	−$19	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June?	Jun 23	$45	−$26	-58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Jun 23	$36	−$35	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Jun 23	$26	−$18	-69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Jun 23	$16	−$16	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Jun 23	$16	−$16	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Jun 23	$51	+$13	+25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Jun 23	$53	−$53	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Jun 23	$78	−$75	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Jun 23	$36	+$53	+145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Jun 23	$76	+$38	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Jun 23	$178	−$178	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Jun 23	$52	−$52	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Jun 23	$51	+$23	+45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Jun 23	$26	+$26	+101%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$102	+$148	+145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 23	$78	+$36	+47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 23	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 23	$52	−$52	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 23	$51	+$25	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Jun 23	$100	+$5	+5%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana?	Jun 23	$8	−$8	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$3	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$16	29m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June?	SELL Yes	0¢	$19	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$36	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	SELL Up	8¢	$8	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$26	40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$16	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$16	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$26	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$52	51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$51	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$53	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	BUY Down	82¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	BUY Down	78¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$26	1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June?	BUY Yes	1¢	$45	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$26	1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$250	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	SELL Up	44¢	$31	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.79 · official $208.79 (match) · 63 history records