Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
29 0x294b…22d2 sports 387 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,451 (+19%) realized +$1,452 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%177W / 200L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$899now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$609
7 days+$1,233
14 days+$1,275
30 days+$1,165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,211
weather 1% −$9
other 1% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 +12.2% +1.5% 58% 57% +10.4%
≤30d 377 -8.8% -17.5% 47% 46% +6.9%
≤90d 377 -8.8% -17.5% 47% 46% +6.9%
all 377 -8.8% -17.5% 47% 46% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 46% +6.9%
10% -25.4% 44% -3.3%
15% -32.6% 39% -12.6%
20% -39.2% 32% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$12 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$899
Realized+$1,452
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses177 / 200
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions10
Markets (closed)377 / 387
History coverage30d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 377 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ 100¢ $100 $256 +$156 (+156%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ 100¢ $100 $192 +$92 (+92%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 62¢ 100¢ $100 $161 +$61 (+61%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Yakult Brothers 44¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 65¢ 63¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 59¢ 52¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-13%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 67¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 169 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $101 +$95 +93%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $101 +$53 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 +$176 +172%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $102 +$116 +114%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $102 +$176 +172%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $102 +$126 +124%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $102 +$131 +129%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $102 +$126 +124%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $30 +$19 +64%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 +$3 +18%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $30 −$11 -38%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $31 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $31 +$38 +124%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $30 +$23 +76%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $30 +$19 +62%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $31 +$43 +140%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $30 +$10 +32%
Game Handicap: GAL (-2.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+2.5) Jun 14 $31 +$53 +172%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $30 +$9 +31%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$13 +42%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 14 $61 −$60 -99%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 14 $30 +$7 +24%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $30 +$30 +97%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $8 +$8 +90%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$7 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 +$30 +97%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $61 +$26 +44%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$7 +24%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$7 +24%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $61 +$26 +44%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $121 +$75 +62%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $212 +$113 +53%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $30 +$28 +91%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $101 0m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $51 1m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $101 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $102 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 44¢ $102 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $101 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $102 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $102 4h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 12h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 57¢ $51 12h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $51 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $101 14h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $101 14h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $101 18h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $51 21h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $51 22h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $51 22h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 48¢ $102 29h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $101 38h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 44¢ $11 43h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $102 46h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ $102 46h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 44¢ $102 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 46¢ $102 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 44¢ $102 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 36¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $102 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 21¢ $51 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 22¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $899.28 · official $899.28 (match) · 766 history records