Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x294a…bbba sports 382 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,412 (-5%) realized −$4,519 · open +$107
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate18%67W / 296L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$333est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$4,182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days−$377
14 days−$7,908
30 days−$8,036
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$4,666
other 39% +$1,004
world 9% −$349
politics 3% −$257
tech 2% −$148
economics 1% −$279
weather 1% +$3
crypto 0% +$77
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-52.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +36.0% +23.0% 38% 38% -17.1%
≤30d 120 -62.0% -65.7% 10% 10% -42.0%
≤90d 299 -77.3% -79.5% 7% 6% -39.2%
all 363 -47.3% -52.3% 18% 14% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.3% 14% -15.1%
10% -56.9% 13% -23.2%
15% -61.1% 12% -30.6%
20% -64.9% 10% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late -72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$213 vs −$65 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$4,182
Realized−$4,519
Unrealized+$107
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses67 / 296
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$333
Open positions13
Markets (closed)363 / 382
History coverage228d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $994 $1,066 +$73 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $754 $762 +$8 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $704 $690 −$14 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $643 $646 +$3 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $187 $266 +$79 (+42%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $264 $230 −$34 (-13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $231 $214 −$17 (-7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $143 $129 −$14 (-10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $90 +$30 (+50%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 30¢ 30¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $18 −$6 (-25%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $10 +$2 (+25%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $51 −$1 -1%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $51 +$49 +96%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $46 −$45 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$45 +90%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $43 +$15 +36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 +$27 +158%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $56 −$22 -40%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $59 −$40 -68%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$159 +158%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $137 −$136 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 −$129 -64%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 −$21 -10%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $133 +$156 +118%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 +$6 +145%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $1,000 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,174 −$245 -21%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $602 −$286 -47%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$45 +982%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $453 +$147 +32%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $12 +$88 +712%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 +$6 +54%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $1,993 −$1,120 -56%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $3,893 −$363 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Zachary Reese (Middleweight, Main Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bruins vs. Flyers Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
AHL: Calgary Wranglers vs. San Jose Barracuda Jun 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Heat vs. Bulls Jun 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Jun 08 $39 −$39 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Raptors Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Pistons vs. Nuggets Jun 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Lightning vs. Wild Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 6? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Raptors vs. Celtics Jun 08 $29 −$29 -100%
Men's Group A - Canada vs. Switzerland Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Men's Group C - Latvia vs. USA Jun 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Men's Quarterfinals - Canada vs. Czechia Jun 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $59 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 50¢ $50 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 23h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $39 25h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $29 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $29 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $50 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $68 25h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 25h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 25h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 25h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,181.56 · official $4,181.56 (match) · 2623 history records