Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:01:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
29 0x2949…b3c3 politics 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate65%26W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$115
7 days−$115
14 days−$115
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$31
other 19% −$12
culture 18% −$1
finance 10% +$36
economics 9% −$1
sports 8% $0
tech 5% +$1
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +5.7% -4.3% 33% 33% -38.5%
≤30d 4 +6.3% -3.8% 50% 25% -20.2%
≤90d 5 +6.3% -3.8% 60% 20% -13.0%
all 40 +1.0% -8.6% 65% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 5% -9.6%
10% -17.4% 2% -18.3%
15% -25.4% 2% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses26 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage245d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? No 82¢ 81¢ $271 $269 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 25 $114 −$114 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $236 −$12 -5%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 25 $9 +$11 +122%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $366 +$30 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 09 $564 +$36 +6%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $330 +$44 +13%
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $3 $0 +1%
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this we Jan 07 $20 $0 +2%
Will Avatar 3 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 07 $120 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 07 $120 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 07 $140 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 07 $3 $0 +3%
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Jan 07 $485 $0 +0%
Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Miami Florida win the 2026 College Football National Championship Jan 07 $3 −$1 -21%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will Rental Family win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 23 $200 $0 -0%
Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 23 $266 −$1 -0%
Will the New Jersey Governor election have the largest Democratic marg Dec 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the California Proposition 50 referendum have the largest Democra Dec 23 $20 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 19 $485 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $335 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? Nov 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will “Bad Influencer” be the top global Netflix show this week? (Novem Nov 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 02 $200 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Nov 02 $200 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 01 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 01 $360 $0 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 20-26? Oct 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 27 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on Octo Oct 27 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $224 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $236 17d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 70¢ $207 17d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 82¢ $273 31d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 44¢ $9 37d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 42¢ $114 37d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 64¢ $188 38d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 61¢ $71 76d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 61¢ $179 76d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 61¢ $16 76d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 61¢ $43 77d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 61¢ $36 77d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 61¢ $5 77d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 61¢ $16 77d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? BUY No 94¢ $564 95d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 75¢ $374 95d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 66¢ $330 160d
Will Miami Florida win the 2026 College Football National Championship SELL No 79¢ $2 169d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $35 169d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $35 184d
Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 184d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $140 184d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $120 184d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $3 184d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 184d
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 184d
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 99¢ $3 184d
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 100¢ $20 184d
Will Avatar 3 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 100¢ $24 184d
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this we BUY No 98¢ $20 184d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.92 · official $268.95 (match) · 232 history records