Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2948…8602 other 262 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%14W / 248L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$12
14 days−$20
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$39
sports 27% −$23
politics 7% −$5
economics 6% −$5
culture 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$3
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 262 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses14 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)262 / 262
History coverage134d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 262 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $384 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $420 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $249 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $326 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $356 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $382 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $341 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $767 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $152 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $360 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $428 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $433 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $241 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $227 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $121 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $167 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $403 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $513 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $69 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $653 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $110 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $308 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $172 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $345 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $296 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $244 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $319 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $145 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $165 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 31 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 31 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $151 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $269 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $255 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $451 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $609 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 2h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 3h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 4h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 7h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 8h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 13h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 14h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 17h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 19h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 22h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 24h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $65 29h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $65 30h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $65 32h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $65 33h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $65 34h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $65 36h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 43h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 44h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $66 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $66 3d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $66 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1351 history records