Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:11:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2947…9ded crypto 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$227 (-14%) realized −$226 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%53W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$115
14 days−$247
30 days−$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 60% −$79
crypto 40% −$167
tech 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -48.0% -53.0% 27% 20% -25.1%
≤30d 139 -34.4% -40.6% 38% 37% -25.0%
≤90d 139 -34.4% -40.6% 38% 37% -25.0%
all 139 -34.4% -40.6% 38% 37% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.6% 37% -25.0%
10% -46.3% 35% -32.2%
15% -51.5% 33% -38.7%
20% -56.2% 24% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$226
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses53 / 86
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage20d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? No 96¢ 95¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $82 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $70 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $60 +$10 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$12 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 −$8 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $52 −$50 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $52 +$74 +144%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $52 −$29 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $92 +$97 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $78 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? SELL No 82¢ $79 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 84¢ $82 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 95¢ $82 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $78 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $75 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $70 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $71 32h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $60 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $101 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 85¢ $92 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $52 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 48¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $100 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 97¢ $126 6d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $52 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 1¢ $1 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No 0¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 97¢ $190 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 46¢ $92 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.19 · official $77.19 (match) · 205 history records