Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:00:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2947…158a crypto 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-24%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$39
world 33% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-50.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -45.0% -50.2% 12% 12% -46.7%
≤30d 8 -45.0% -50.2% 12% 12% -46.7%
≤90d 8 -45.0% -50.2% 12% 12% -46.7%
all 8 -45.0% -50.2% 12% 12% -46.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.2% 12% -46.7%
10% ← realistic here -55.0% 12% -51.8%
15% -59.3% 0% -56.5%
20% -63.3% 0% -60.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $33 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 8h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 8h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records