Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:20:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2946…8eb4 crypto 377 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$112 (+1%) realized +$153 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%111W / 264L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days+$323
14 days+$210
30 days−$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 29% −$85
other 28% −$1,162
world 19% +$1,278
weather 13% −$506
sports 4% +$738
politics 4% −$291
tech 2% −$175
economics 0% −$31
finance 0% +$11
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -38.4% -44.3% 8% 8% +30.9%
≤30d 88 -20.5% -28.1% 24% 22% -16.4%
≤90d 341 -23.8% -31.1% 26% 25% -11.6%
all 375 -19.4% -27.0% 30% 28% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 28% -11.2%
10% -34.0% 26% -19.7%
15% -40.4% 24% -27.4%
20% -46.2% 19% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$20 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$153
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses111 / 264
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)375 / 377
History coverage153d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 375 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $60 $25 −$35 (-58%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $8 $0 -5%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $12 −$1 -11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 22 $12 $0 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $55 −$42 -77%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $8 −$4 -47%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $45 −$39 -88%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$3 -44%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $63 −$30 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$10 +134%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 $0 -5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $30 −$9 -28%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $31 −$13 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $138 −$63 -46%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $170 +$642 +378%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $98 −$9 -9%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $15 −$5 -32%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $32 −$32 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $46 −$42 -92%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $155 −$136 -88%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $96 −$12 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $81 −$73 -90%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 02 $75 −$64 -86%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 31 $175 −$43 -24%
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in the US in May? May 31 $89 −$89 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 28? May 30 $86 −$86 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $25 +$319 +1277%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $64 +$9 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $60 +$40 +67%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026? May 27 $3 −$1 -48%
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? May 27 $31 −$26 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 27 $82 −$6 -8%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $58 +$23 +39%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $193 +$44 +23%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $41 −$26 -63%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $16 +$11 +67%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $179 −$147 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $12 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $13 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $5 22h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $50 23h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 4d
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? BUY No 7¢ $5 4d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 2¢ $10 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $7 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.88 · official $26.88 (match) · 1119 history records