Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
29 0x2944…cf36 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$139 (+14%) realized +$142 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$454now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$198
sports 15% +$251
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +49.9% +35.6% 29% 29% +1.3%
≤30d 14 +49.9% +35.6% 29% 29% +1.3%
≤90d 14 +49.9% +35.6% 29% 29% +1.3%
all 14 +49.9% +35.6% 29% 29% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.6% 29% +1.3%
10% +22.6% 29% -8.4%
15% +10.8% 29% -17.2%
20% -0.1% 21% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +117% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$28 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$454
Realized+$142
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $457 $454 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 +$20 +86%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $48 +$24 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$146 +143%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $47 −$46 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $53 −$52 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$146 +1418%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $460 50m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 59m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 9h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 99¢ $247 9h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $47 11h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $53 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $48 12h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $102 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 53¢ $23 24h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 36h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 44h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 44h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 44h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 44h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 44h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $41 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 10¢ $67 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $453.70 · official $453.70 (match) · 27 history records