Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:46:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2942…7d8e sports 236 markets active 23h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$191 (-14%) realized −$187 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%95W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$212
14 days−$205
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$169
other 26% −$43
world 9% +$13
crypto 7% +$3
politics 5% −$6
finance 5% +$2
tech 2% −$1
weather 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -3.4% -12.6% 58% 45% -35.7%
≤30d 173 -10.7% -19.2% 55% 44% -25.8%
≤90d 175 -10.7% -19.2% 54% 43% -25.7%
all 175 -10.7% -19.2% 54% 43% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 43% -25.7%
10% -26.9% 35% -32.9%
15% -34.0% 26% -39.3%
20% -40.4% 23% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized−$187
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses95 / 80
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions61
Markets (closed)175 / 236
History coverage52d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 61 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 89¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 85¢ 99¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+17%)
US bank failure by June 30? No 90¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 76¢ 72¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+127%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 91¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 78¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? No 91¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in June? No 84¢ 97¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 84¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 97¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 93¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 95¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+21%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? Yes 42¢ 94¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+125%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLDE? No 98¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by June 30? No 72¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +30%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 +$3 +101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $2 +$1 +61%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +38%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $13 +$2 +12%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$4 +257%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$8 +388%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $210 −$210 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 15 $2 +$3 +124%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +26%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $3 +$2 +59%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $12 +$3 +21%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +33%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $7 22h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $15 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $2 2d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 31¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $4 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 2d
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY No 64¢ $3 2d
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 44¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? BUY No 95¢ $5 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 56¢ $3 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY No 63¢ $3 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $4 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $2 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $1 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $1 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire $0 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 25¢ $1 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 49¢ $2 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $4 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $4 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $3 3d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel BUY Alexander Shevchenko 50¢ $3 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.00 · official $257.98 (match) · 609 history records