Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:16:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x2940…304c
crypto · 783 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$10,888 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8,762 · open +$403
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,191
Realized+$8,762
Unrealized+$403
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses527 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)774 / 783
History coverage56d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day50.9
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 9 History 774 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,277
7 days+$2,435
14 days+$2,384
30 days+$8,285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 27¢ 55¢ $674 $1,371 +$697 (+103%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $543 $598 +$55 (+10%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 44¢ 59¢ $321 $429 +$108 (+34%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $221 $271 +$50 (+23%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Yes 58¢ 24¢ $567 $239 −$328 (-58%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $168 $186 +$18 (+10%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 15¢ 5¢ $289 $92 −$196 (-68%)
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 51¢ 91¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $140 +$28 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $734 +$743 +101%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $401 +$620 +154%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 13 $129 −$75 -58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $112 +$92 +82%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $35 −$16 -47%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $287 −$115 -40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $196 −$35 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $350 +$85 +24%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $478 +$50 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $102 +$89 +87%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $122 +$93 +76%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $261 +$100 +38%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $166 +$33 +20%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 11 $272 −$16 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $441 +$53 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $131 −$23 -18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $129 −$129 -100%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $827 −$159 -19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $1,720 +$749 +44%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $421 −$46 -11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $157 −$22 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,166 +$348 +30%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $129 +$329 +254%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $242 +$82 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $286 −$286 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $1,592 +$63 +4%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 03 $365 −$134 -37%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 03 $403 +$156 +39%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $79 −$9 -11%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $662 −$16 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $95 −$25 -26%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $659 −$64 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $379 +$225 +59%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $1,222 −$166 -14%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 31 $1,066 −$116 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $2,387 +$440 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $3,091 +$182 +6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $292 −$292 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $115 +$76 +66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $196 +$58 +30%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? May 29 $190 −$18 -10%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $409 +$116 +28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $590 +$40 +7%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 28 $430 +$25 +6%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 28 $658 +$43 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 71% +$8,537
other 14% +$854
crypto 10% +$45
politics 3% −$402
finance 1% −$73
tech 0% +$156
economics 0% +$44
culture 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $4 20m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 37¢ $42 26m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $126 26m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 46¢ $91 27m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 43¢ $16 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 26¢ $2 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 26¢ $25 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 32¢ $4 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 32¢ $30 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 31¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 31¢ $3 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 31¢ $3 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 31¢ $92 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 68¢ $147 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 54¢ $150 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 55¢ $250 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 62¢ $200 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $132 3h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $32 3h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 3h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 48¢ $162 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 42¢ $23 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 44¢ $247 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 27¢ $108 4h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 7h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 59¢ $2 7h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 59¢ $3 7h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 58¢ $63 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +11.3% +0.7% 54% 50% +15.6%
≤30d 107 +4.3% -5.7% 59% 47% +6.2%
≤90d 774 -0.4% -9.9% 68% 64% +1.1%
all 774 -0.4% -9.9% 68% 64% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 64% +1.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 55% -8.6%
15% -26.4% 25% -17.4%
20% -33.6% 8% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,191.37 · official $3,191.65 (match) · 3500 history records