Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x293b…7a58 sports 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$435 (-15%) realized −$456 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$707
7 days+$493
14 days+$21
30 days+$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$165
other 4% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +64.6% +48.9% 40% 40% +51.8%
≤30d 40 -10.5% -19.0% 22% 22% -4.6%
≤90d 40 -10.5% -19.0% 22% 22% -4.6%
all 40 -10.5% -19.0% 22% 22% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 22% -4.6%
10% -26.8% 22% -13.7%
15% -33.8% 22% -22.0%
20% -40.3% 22% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$56 · ×3.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized−$456
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 31
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage24d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 33¢ 40¢ $73 $87 +$14 (+19%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Under 9¢ 12¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $50 +$382 +767%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $40 +$65 +162%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $44 +$45 +101%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $62 +$82 +132%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $41 +$167 +403%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $65 +$144 +221%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $40 −$7 -18%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $94 −$91 -97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $125 −$121 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $42 −$41 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $10 −$2 -21%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $14 −$14 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $50 −$48 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $38 −$37 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 14.5 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $68 −$66 -97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 07 $210 −$205 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $108 −$105 -97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $122 +$141 +115%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $173 +$161 +93%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 05 $154 +$679 +442%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 31 $217 −$212 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 May 29 $59 −$57 -97%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 29 $60 −$59 -97%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5 May 29 $73 −$13 -18%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 May 28 $42 −$41 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 May 28 $176 −$172 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 May 28 $101 −$99 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 May 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 27 $38 −$37 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $103 3m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $75 15m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 9¢ $31 16m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 19¢ $31 44m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $432 55m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 98¢ $105 59m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 36¢ $40 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 11¢ $50 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 88¢ $89 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 17¢ $41 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 99¢ $143 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 41¢ $62 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $41 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 20¢ $31 3h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 42¢ $44 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $208 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $41 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $209 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 24¢ $33 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 59¢ $33 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $40 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $32 8h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 12¢ $31 8h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 16¢ $3 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 17¢ $91 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 27¢ $125 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 22¢ $26 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 12¢ $10 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 12¢ $16 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.75 · official $221.56 (match) · 66 history records