Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:34:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x293b…315c other 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$11
politics 34% −$11
sports 13% −$11
economics 4% −$1
tech 4% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 94 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 133 -1.6% -11.0% 8% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.5% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 122
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage130d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $180 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $190 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $188 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $166 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $181 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $141 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $383 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $186 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $191 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $199 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $142 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $352 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 13 $148 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $203 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $496 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $303 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $152 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $169 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $139 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 06 $3 $0 +1%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $163 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $326 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 02 $162 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $186 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $361 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $152 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $193 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $305 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $315 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $141 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $205 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $203 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $174 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $154 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $167 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $142 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 16 $197 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 6h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 9h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $21 13h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $21 19h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 47h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 16d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 21d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 22d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $180 22d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $180 25d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $190 26d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $190 28d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $195 28d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $195 29d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $188 29d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $188 30d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $166 30d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $166 30d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $181 30d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $181 31d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $141 31d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $141 32d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $200 32d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $200 34d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $186 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.99 · official $27.99 (match) · 415 history records