Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:25:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x293a…b607 world 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$169 (+1%) realized +$170 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%19W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,336per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2,001now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$26
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$73
economics 25% +$46
other 19% +$39
crypto 6% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 18 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 19 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,958) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$2,001
Realized+$170
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses19 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage100d
Avg bet$1,336
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,041 $1,042 +$1 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $698 $697 −$1 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $226 $226 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $2,000 +$2 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $1,975 +$20 +1%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $1,968 +$8 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,958 +$10 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $41 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $1,884 +$33 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $37 +$4 +10%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $35 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,871 +$15 +1%
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? May 13 $1,865 +$6 +0%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $1,893 +$8 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $1,889 +$4 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $1,876 +$13 +1%
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this Apr 20 $1,872 +$4 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $1,863 +$9 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $1,840 +$22 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $1,833 +$7 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $399 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $299 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $226 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,041 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2,000 6d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,996 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $760 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $990 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $99 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $27 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $99 16d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,968 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 23d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,917 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 99¢ $41 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 91¢ $37 32d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 100¢ $37 35d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $1,884 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,871 43d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 99¢ $35 46d
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $332 47d
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $665 47d
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $28 47d
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $157 47d
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $332 48d
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $332 48d
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 49d
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $7 49d
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $9 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,000.91 · official $2,000.91 (match) · 56 history records