Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

29 0x2939…13cf other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$56 (-19%) realized +$90 · open −$146

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip

Net edge-52%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$100per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-50.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-45.3%	-50.5%	50%	0%	-33.9%
≤30d	2	-45.3%	-50.5%	50%	0%	-33.9%
≤90d	2	-45.3%	-50.5%	50%	0%	-33.9%
all	2	-45.3%	-50.5%	50%	0%	-33.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-50.5%	0%	-33.9%
10%	-55.3%	0%	-40.2%
15%	-59.6%	0%	-46.0%
20%	-63.6%	0%	-51.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -27% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -45% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$50 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.19 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$90

Unrealized−$146

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$100

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	72¢	0¢	$146	$0	−$146 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$9	+9%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$51	−$50	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	64¢	$47	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$101	2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	88¢	$110	20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$101	21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$51	23h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 5 history records