Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
29 0x2937…694e world 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 174d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$328 (+5%) realized +$345 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$357per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$336now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 94% +$328
other 6% −$17
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -56.4% -60.6% 0% 0% -41.0%
all 9 +55.1% +40.4% 33% 33% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.4% 33% -4.3%
10% +26.9% 33% -13.4%
15% +14.7% 33% -21.8%
20% +3.4% 33% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,475 vs −$683 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$336
Realized+$345
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)9 / 17
History coverage174d
Avg bet$357
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 61¢ 43¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $143 −$72 -50%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $134 −$10 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 15 $100 −$18 -18%
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $502 +$3,679 +733%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 24 $500 −$474 -95%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $402 +$387 +96%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $410 +$358 +87%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 04 $3,512 −$3,512 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $33 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $72 64d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $72 64d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $72 64d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $72 64d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $52 68d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $52 69d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $82 71d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $82 71d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 75d
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 75d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $26 93d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $500 116d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $110 117d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $110 117d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $79 120d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $79 120d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $323 141d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $300 141d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $2,999 167d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $513 168d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $502 173d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $335.63 · official $335.63 (match) · 33 history records