Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:45:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x2937…ad07 other 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,354 (+10%) realized +$2,444 · open −$90
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%36W / 25L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$1,970now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$671
7 days+$1,440
14 days+$1,194
30 days+$2,790
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$2,530
sports 21% −$62
crypto 3% −$360
tech 2% +$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +24.3% +12.5% 75% 69% +24.3%
≤30d 36 +40.1% +26.8% 75% 69% +21.1%
≤90d 44 +22.5% +10.8% 66% 61% +5.7%
all 61 +6.2% -3.9% 59% 52% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 52% +0.7%
10% -13.1% 52% -8.9%
15% -21.5% 51% -17.7%
20% -29.2% 36% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$155 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$1,970
Realized+$2,444
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses36 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions14
Markets (closed)61 / 75
History coverage204d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $500 $489 −$11 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 42¢ 42¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $150 $140 −$10 (-7%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 67¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 28¢ $200 $98 −$102 (-51%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? No 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 32¢ $50 $93 +$43 (+85%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $59 +$9 (+17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $60 $52 −$8 (-13%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 11¢ $50 $13 −$37 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $152 +$76 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $302 +$69 +23%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $506 +$288 +57%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,003 +$96 +10%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $101 +$46 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $204 +$296 +146%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $406 +$394 +97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $303 +$166 +55%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $26 −$15 -58%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $19 +$19 +97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $329 +$197 +60%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $252 +$121 +48%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $103 −$38 -37%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 +$39 +129%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $505 −$366 -72%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $300 −$257 -86%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 09 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $50 +$152 +303%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 09 $405 +$169 +42%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $102 +$79 +77%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $151 +$115 +76%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,000 +$389 +39%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $507 +$419 +83%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? May 28 $30 +$62 +206%
Will USD.AI launch a token on April 21? May 28 $100 +$7 +6%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 28 $100 +$122 +122%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 28 $200 +$158 +79%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? May 28 $250 +$198 +79%
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on May 13 $308 −$300 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $408 −$400 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 01 $804 −$800 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 30? Apr 29 $156 +$97 +62%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? Apr 29 $255 −$250 -98%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Apr 07 $1,500 +$1,236 +82%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 4? Feb 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 3? Feb 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? Jan 09 $200 +$320 +160%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Jan 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 08 $20 +$9 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 42¢ $203 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 26¢ $102 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $101 30h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $102 30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $152 30h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 40h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $204 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,003 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $153 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $406 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $19 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $302 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 6d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 7d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 58¢ $203 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $304 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $65 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $252 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $25 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $31 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $139 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,969.96 · official $1,970.07 (match) · 322 history records