Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:55:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2936…7be9 other 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,013 (+19%) realized +$6,772 · open −$759
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate36%37W / 67L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day92.4pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$4,381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$403
crypto 3% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -20.5% -28.1% 24% 17% -24.6%
≤30d 96 -13.9% -22.1% 38% 22% -10.9%
≤90d 104 -16.6% -24.5% 36% 21% -15.8%
all 104 -16.6% -24.5% 36% 21% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.5% 21% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -31.8% 20% -23.9%
15% -38.3% 17% -31.2%
20% -44.4% 14% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
22.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$72 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$4,381
Realized+$6,772
Unrealized−$759
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses37 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions48
Markets (closed)104 / 96
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$328
Trades / day92.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 98¢ $468 $470 +$2 (+1%)
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 91¢ $278 $273 −$5 (-2%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $582 $248 −$334 (-57%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $252 $215 −$37 (-15%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $143 $214 +$71 (+50%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 94¢ $187 $187 +$1 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $168 $175 +$7 (+4%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $171 $175 +$4 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $175 $170 −$6 (-3%)
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $167 $169 +$2 (+1%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $144 $162 +$18 (+13%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $248 $161 −$87 (-35%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $132 $152 +$20 (+15%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $225 $140 −$85 (-38%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $136 $129 −$7 (-5%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $118 $120 +$2 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $101 $114 +$13 (+13%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $124 $112 −$11 (-9%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $260 $111 −$149 (-57%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $110 $99 −$11 (-10%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 95¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $98 $94 −$4 (-4%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $72 $90 +$18 (+25%)
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $56 $72 +$17 (+30%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $62 $69 +$6 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Jun 29 $14 +$86 +595%
Will Slovenia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 29 $39 −$25 -64%
Will Mads Pedersen win the 2026 Men's Tour de Flanders? Jun 29 $3 +$1 +47%
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey bronze medal at the 2026 W Jun 29 $2 +$16 +1015%
Will Czech Republic win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Wi Jun 29 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13? Jun 29 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Google’s Gemini 3 Pro lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 9? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
ELH: Dynamo Pardubice vs. Sparta Prague Jun 29 $25 −$24 -95%
Will Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 4.5 lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 com Jun 29 $9 −$13 -141%
Will Unknown’s Mystery Model lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competiti Jun 29 $1 −$1 -103%
ELH: Dynamo Pardubice vs. Sparta Prague Jun 29 $21 −$19 -88%
Will Filippo Ganna win the 2026 Paris-Roubaix Hauts-de-France? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mathieu van der Poel win the 2026 Paris-Roubaix Hauts-de-France? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Denmark win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Jun 29 $59 −$56 -94%
Bitcoin above $122K on August 20? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin above $124K on August 20? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above $120K on August 22? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above $124K on August 18? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
ELH: Dynamo Pardubice vs. Trinec Jun 29 $2 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin above $116000 on August 13? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Romania qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kimi’s Kimi K2 Thinking lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competiti Jun 29 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin above $120K on August 20? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Czech Republic win the Men's Ice Hockey bronze medal at the 2026 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship? Jun 29 $138 +$6 +4%
Will Sweden win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Jun 29 $274 −$276 -101%
Will Czechia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin above $118K on August 22? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above $122000 on August 15? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin above $120K on August 18? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above $116K on August 27? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above $118000 on August 13? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winte Jun 29 $205 −$191 -94%
Will OpenAI’s GPT 5.1 win lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Jun 29 $239 −$28 -12%
Will United States win the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Wout van Aert win the 2026 Men's Tour de Flanders? Jun 29 $6 −$12 -207%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Jun 29 $722 −$646 -90%
Will Tadej Pogacar finish in the top 3 at the 2026 Men's Tour de Fland Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum above $4600 on August 25? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 29 $84 −$76 -91%
Will Slovakia win the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek Chat V3.1 lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 com Jun 29 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $195 −$191 -98%
Will Sweden win the Men's Ice Hockey silver medal at the 2026 Winter O Jun 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Latvia win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Jun 29 $33 +$40 +123%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 4m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 20m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 22m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 27m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 27m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 28m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $92 52m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $33 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $88 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $70 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $64 2h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $31 2h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $94 7h
Will Canada reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 99¢ $117 12h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $108 14h
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $93 14h
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $185 14h
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 14h
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 15h
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 15h
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,380.70 · official $4,380.71 (match) · 3500 history records