Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:40:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x2932…3c00
crypto · 25 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$12 -32%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$8
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)15 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 10 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Yes 44¢ 74¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+68%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Yes 36¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Yes 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 48¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 23¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 45¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 23¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Down $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 40¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Down 67¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 72% −$8
weather 19% −$2
other 3% $0
sports 3% −$1
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 25h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 25h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 45¢ $1 3d
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-48.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -43.5% -48.9% 33% 33% -43.6%
≤30d 15 -43.5% -48.9% 33% 33% -43.6%
≤90d 15 -43.5% -48.9% 33% 33% -43.6%
all 15 -43.5% -48.9% 33% 33% -43.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.9% 33% -43.6%
10% -53.8% 33% -49.0%
15% -58.2% 33% -53.9%
20% -62.3% 33% -58.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.11 · official $8.11 (match) · 30 history records