Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:16:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2932…a568 crypto 747 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$316 (+0%) realized +$316 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate90%670W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$98
14 days−$67
30 days−$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +3.0% -6.8% 88% 26% -14.4%
≤30d 155 +35.2% +22.3% 92% 37% -12.0%
≤90d 452 +12.2% +1.5% 93% 23% -10.4%
all 747 +8.0% -2.3% 90% 43% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 43% -9.4%
10% -11.7% 12% -18.1%
15% -20.2% 6% -26.0%
20% -28.0% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$74 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$316
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses670 / 77
Open positions0
Markets (closed)747 / 747
History coverage178d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 747 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$46 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $46 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $44 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $59 −$58 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $54 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $49 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $47 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $44 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $43 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $58 −$57 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $77 −$77 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $76 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $74 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $72 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $70 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $68 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $66 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $65 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $64 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $63 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $62 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $61 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $61 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $59 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $57 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $56 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $56 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $53 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $49 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $65 −$64 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $64 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $62 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $59 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $58 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $36 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $36 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $20 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $35 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $47 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $47 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $46 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $44 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $44 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $59 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $58 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $57 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $56 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $56 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.51 · official $0.00 · 3075 history records