Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:20:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
29 0x2930…75d6 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$306 (+30%) realized +$287 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$429now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$253
other 24% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +52.3% +37.8% 62% 62% +31.6%
≤30d 8 +52.3% +37.8% 62% 62% +31.6%
≤90d 8 +52.3% +37.8% 62% 62% +31.6%
all 8 +52.3% +37.8% 62% 62% +31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.8% 62% +31.6%
10% +24.6% 62% +19.0%
15% +12.6% 62% +7.5%
20% +1.6% 50% -3.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$59 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$429
Realized+$287
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions7
Markets (closed)8 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 24¢ $30 $50 +$20 (+68%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $115 −$115 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 +$119 +388%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $101 +$91 +90%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $99 +$36 +36%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $98 +$103 +105%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $106 +$107 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 53m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $152 55m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 59m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 59m
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 11h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 11h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $135 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $99 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $201 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $98 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $115 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $213 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $46 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 34h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 36h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $428.68 · official $428.68 (match) · 25 history records