Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:02:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x292d…6f05
crypto · 2204 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$783 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,147 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized+$1,147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses1060 / 638
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1698 / 2204
History coverage26d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day127.4
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1698 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$473
7 days+$87
14 days+$1,264
30 days+$1,147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 52¢ 100¢ $3 $7 +$3 (+92%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 67¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+49%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Up 44¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+127%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4PM ET Up 41¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+144%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 42¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+138%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 41¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+144%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 53¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+89%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 48¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$1,949
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $21 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 718 +16.5% +5.4% 58% 58% -6.4%
≤30d 1698 +22.0% +10.4% 62% 62% +7.7%
≤90d 1698 +22.0% +10.4% 62% 62% +7.7%
all 1698 +22.0% +10.4% 62% 62% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover127.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.4% 62% +7.7%
10% ← realistic here -0.2% 60% -2.6%
15% -9.8% 59% -12.0%
20% -18.7% 56% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.56 · official $36.36 (match) · 3500 history records