Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:53:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x292c…00b9 other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$79 (-6%) realized +$483 · open −$562
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$560
sports 16% −$158
crypto 6% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-49.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -43.6% -49.0% 25% 25% -54.1%
≤30d 12 -43.6% -49.0% 25% 25% -54.1%
≤90d 12 -43.6% -49.0% 25% 25% -54.1%
all 12 -43.6% -49.0% 25% 25% -54.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.0% 25% -54.1%
10% -53.9% 25% -58.5%
15% -58.3% 0% -62.5%
20% -62.4% 0% -66.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$19 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized+$483
Unrealized−$562
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions9
Markets (closed)12 / 21
History coverage6d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $155 $122 −$32 (-21%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $80 $52 −$28 (-35%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 27¢ 14¢ $83 $43 −$40 (-48%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $100 $6 −$94 (-94%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $140 $5 −$135 (-97%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $70 $2 −$68 (-97%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-99%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Qatar? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $64 −$59 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$19 -41%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $59 −$41 -69%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $52 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$6 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19 −$2 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 5m
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 7¢ $85 5m
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 11m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $55 13m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 27¢ $87 17m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? SELL Yes 9¢ $89 22m
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 28m
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $137 54m
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $176 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $32 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $32 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $106 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $106 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $148 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $53 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 4¢ $11 2d
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 1¢ $11 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $17 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $18 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $18 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $32 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $33 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $32 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.90 · official $230.90 (match) · 47 history records